Self-directed investment portfolios, for the typical Canadian, can follow two major strategies which are dependent on your current stage in life. The first strategy, and what we will discuss in detail in this post, is the Growth Strategy. The second strategy is the Retirement Strategy—which we will discuss in detail in another post.
Typically you want to follow a Growth Strategy portfolio while you are working and saving money. In this stage, you should be more tolerant of volatility and you can easily weather market downturns while buying up stock-based ETFs cheaply.
A Retirement Strategy is normally better when you are looking for tax efficient income and less volatility.
The Strategy & Design
A growth strategy portfolio will typically have few components. In this strategy, you should hold no more than 5 different ETFs.
In the last post, we categorized the ETF market into two major groups: a growth group and a protection group.
When following a growth strategy, growth ETFs should form 60 - 100% of your total portfolio value. This leaves 0 - 40% for protection ETFs. The true amount you choose will depend on your investment stage and risk tolerance.
Diversified stocks can drop up to 50% while bonds are unlikely to drop substantially. Therefore, a portfolio with 100% growth ETFs has an expected max drop in value of 50% during a broad market crash. While a portfolio with 60% growth ETFs has an expected max portfolio loss of just 25% during a market crash.
The protection does come at a cost though. Stocks generally provide much better returns than bonds over longer time periods.
Use the questionnaire to assess your maturity and competence in investing to determine how aggressive your portfolio should be. In my view, if you can't handle a 25% loss in portfolio value, you should probably let a good adviser manage your investment portfolio for you.
Most self-directed investors looking for growth should be comfortable with at least 70% of their portfolio in growth ETFs.
Choosing Your Growth ETF Allocations
Once you've chosen your desired growth/protection ratio, the next step is to choose your ETFs. The main goal here is diversification: exposure to a broad range of markets and currencies.
The easiest solution would be dumping the whole growth side into a single ETF: XAW.TO (the iShares MSCI All Country ex-Canada Index ETF). You get cheap exposure to the entire world except Canadian stocks. Being proud Canadians, it's often easy for us to forget that Canada only forms about 3.5% of the global stock market—we're not a big deal in the world economy.
For tax efficiency, re-balancing, and somewhat lower fees, I think most investors with at least $100,000 are better off splitting their portfolio into components by adding a Canadian allocation. It's wise to do this in the approximate allocation to global markets with a heavier allocation to Canada—especially if you can put your Canadian allocation in a Cash/Margin account.
For a bit more diversification, you can go up to 3 ETFs in your growth allocation. This translates to putting 50% into U.S. stocks, 30% into developed international, and the last 20% into Canada.
Choosing Your Protection ETF Allocations
Your protection component ETFs can be placed all in Canadian currency. Bonds are a "must have" in this side of your portfolio. Gold miners are optional and normally preferred share ETFs are only useful for Income Strategy portfolios.
The easiest solution here is to put all your protection side in broad bonds. Broad bond ETFs will perform better than short-term bonds over the long haul, but they are also more susceptible to interest rate risk than short-term bonds.
If your bond allocation is small with the main goal of providing maximum stability and "juice" for stock investing in a stock market crash, short-term bonds are a great tool. They have the maximum negative correlation to stocks during drawdowns.
Gold miners are great for dampening swings in the stock market, protecting from inflation, and capitalizing on market fear. But they are also volatile and unpredictable. For this reason, gold miners should never form more than 10% of your overall portfolio.
There is no "wrong" solution here if your expectations match the general principles I shared here. Simplicity and cost should be the driving factors for your choice.
I would suggest the best choice is either going all broad bonds or all short term bonds for portfolios under $100,000. There's no substantial advantage in splitting up your bonds between broad bonds and short term bonds. With larger portfolios, consider splitting between bonds and gold miners up to a maximum of 10% for gold.
Growth Portfolio Examples
The images depict a portfolio with 80% growth allocation and a 20% protection allocation.
2 ETF Portfolio for Canadians
A really easy portfolio for an investor with higher risk tolerance would be putting 100% of their growth portion into XAW and 100% of their protection portion into ZAG or VSB.
3 ETF Portfolio for Canadians
The next logical step is to add Canadian stocks to the 2 ETF portfolio. For diversification reasons, Canadian stocks should be a maximum of 20% of your total portfolio. The 3 ETF Portfolio has your growth portion in XAW and a smaller allocation to XIC or HXT with all of the protection portion in ZAG or VSB.
4 ETF Portfolio for Canadians
The next step adds gold miners to the protection side of the 3 ETF portfolio. Growth is still in XAW and XIC or HXT. Protection is now split between ZAG or VSB and XGD or ZGD. For example, if you chose to have 80 or 90% growth, your protection side would be split evenly between bonds and gold miners. If your portfolio is 70% growth and 30% protection, your protection side would be two-thirds bonds and one-third gold so that gold makes up no more than 10% of your total portfolio.
5 ETF Portfolio for Canadians
With this step we split up the growth side of your portfolio. Instead of choosing XAW, we split that into a U.S. stock component and Developed International stock component. A reasonable allocation for the growth side is 50% XUU/HXS, 30% VIU/XEF, and 20% XIC/HXT while your protection side remains unchanged from the 4 ETF portfolio.
While it's not always better to use more ETFs as your portfolio grows in value, you should definitely not over-complicate a small portfolio. There is no benefit to expanding beyond the 5 ETF Portfolio for any growth oriented portfolio. Also, as fees continuously come down across ETFs, the benefit to holding more components in your portfolio tends to shrink.
The current fees for these portfolios will average 0.18% annually. This is extremely cheap considering you will be holding a portion of thousands of different corporations and hundreds of bonds.
You should rebalance your allocations at least once a year. Pick a memorable date like your birthday or anniversary.
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