In June 2019 we saw another big shift for stocks. The S&P 500 seemed to be forming a downtrend at the beginning of the month. Then, as we've seen so many times before, it turned around aggressively and has been making a hell of a run in more recent weeks. Things got exciting for investors after the Fed meeting; even the tiniest words are taken as indicators of monetary policy direction.
I think the Fed has been pretty clear since the late 1980s. They will try to save financial markets and equity valuations every time there are signs of valuation risk. The problem is that it works until it doesn't. We've had two of the four worst corrections in the past 100 years under this policy action. We've also had the two longest bull markets, roughly doubling the length of prior long bull runs.
In my investment account I've opened new leveraged positions throughout the month as trends changed once again. Emerging markets and gold are particularly notable for their change in direction. In the emerging world I've jumped into Brazilian stocks (again), Chinese stocks, and Indian stocks.
A trade I definitely missed was long-duration Treasury bonds. First, from last October through May, they were inversely correlated to equities and would have made a nice hedge to the losing periods in that time. Now they are correlated with stocks, complementing returns even more. Crazy! My large short-term bond holding had similar moves, but the intensity was naturally much more subdued.
In June I continued to hold U.S. stocks in our registered accounts as per the Dual Momentum signal. My registered accounts make up a little less than half of our total investment account values while the rest is invested in short-term bonds and a trend strategy which I share weekly.
In my trend investing account I made a number of trades, getting into gold, European stocks, Brazilian stocks, Indian stocks, and Chinese stocks.
In May, we finished the month with a total of $666,012 in our investment accounts. If you recall, we had a steep loss of -9.78 percent that month.
This past month I held off on new contributions again. Our cash flow has gone a little crazy as we are setting up accounts for our move, I quit my job, and I want to make sure we have enough cash on hand to close our obligations in Canada before we move.
We saw a positive monthly investment return of +2.42 percent on our portfolio. We are about 9.5 percent off of our portfolio highs.
I hope through sharing our real numbers you will be inspired to start saving and investing young—it pays!
The Current Numbers
Here are our current Investment Assets as of the last trading day in June. We invest in TFSAs, RRSPs, and a non-registered joint margin account. You can keep track of our total investment assets and returns on the About Daren page.
We use a version of Dual Momentum and a moving average/breakout trend strategy to determine what we buy and when we sell our positions. I often employ leverage in positions, so our results tend to swing a bit more each way than the underlying indices.
January 1 of the current year is in brackets to help illustrate the change during the current year. Net Worth Change reflects the total increase/decrease of this past month including new contributions.
The Investment Return is the gross 12-month return on our investment positions, corrected for new contributions at the end of each month. Due to the end-of-month adjustment, the true rate of return on a daily adjustment basis would be slightly different dependent on the intra-month return on the new contribution.
Total Investments: $682,116 ($745,462)
Monthly Net Worth Change: +$16,104
30x Rule Safe Annual Income: $22,737 ($24,849)
12-Month Investment Return: -5.21 percent
My wife and I are in our late-20s. I am a former law enforcement officer who is currently taking a break from the world of work. My wife is a public school teacher. We don't earn enormous salaries, but by keeping our spending under control we save a large portion of our incomes each month.
Our Investment Assets are completely the result of our own hard work and the returns we've seen on our investments; we have not received any gifts or won any lotteries.
While we both worked in pension careers, for this purpose we don't include pension values in our net worth nor pension contributions in our savings. Our investment assets and contributions are from our net paycheques.
We invest primarily with index ETFs, LEAPS options, and futures contracts using a dual strategy portfolio that I personally developed and maintain. To keep our investing costs as low as possible, I use Questrade and Interactive Brokers as my online brokerages. Questrade is my go-to choice for registered accounts. Interactive Brokers offers powerful tools, low commissions, and low margin interest for our joint margin non-registered account.
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