Model Portfolios

Canadian Dual Momentum Strategy

The Dual Momentum Strategy is a disciplined, active timing strategy using look-back performance criteria.

Dual Momentum was first researched and promoted by Gary Antonacci using U.S. based funds. His book and whitepapers are worth reading.

For simplicity, I use my Canadian ETF picks which produce results similar to the original strategy after currency adjustments.

Investing in a Dual Momentum Strategy requires monthly evaluation of the historical performance of three Index ETFs. Based on research, acceptable lookback periods range from 6 months to 12 months.

These are the three ETFs which I consider in my monthly updates:

XUU.TO - iShares Core S&P U.S. Total Market Index
XEF.TO - iShares Core MSCI EAFE IMI Index
XSB.TO - iShares Core Canadian Short-term Bond Index

In my monthly evaluation, I use an average of the 6-month and 12-month recent performance. The entire portfolio is then 100% invested in the best performing ETF using this measure.

Based on Gary's research, the maximum drawdown over the past 45 years would not have exceeded 20% of the portfolio value. The overall compounded return was substantially higher than the MSCI World Index.

Future performance may be different, but it is reasonable to believe drawdowns will continue to be relatively low using this strategy when compared to buy-and-hold strategies.

2014 Return:  +23.61%
2015 Return:  +19.08%
2016 Return:  +1.24%
2017 Return:  +10.53%
2018 YTD:  +0.31% (May 31)

Risk: The Dual Momentum strategy is likely to decline substantially during market downturns. The information is an opinion and should not be interpreted as personal financial advice. Stated returns may not be accurate and should be verified independently by the reader.

I invest in ETFs which may from time to time include the ETFs listed here. However, I do not derive any financial benefit nor do I collect any revenue should you invest the in the securities listed.

Moose Tactical Asset Allocation Portfolios

High Growth Portfolio

The High Growth Portfolio is a tactical asset allocation portfolio that is tilted heavily to growth for younger investors.

To reduce risk, simply increase the bond allocation and reduce the stock allocation proportionally.

There are several options to track this portfolio which may be preferable depending on your personal circumstances. See my favorite Canadian ETFs for different options in each asset class. You should attempt to optimize your ETFs by account type for tax efficiency.

These returns are based on re-balancing the first trading day of January each year. I don't include regular contributions while calculating my returns so your results will vary. Trading costs and taxes not included.

2014 Return:  10.19%
2015 Return:  7.80%
2016 Return:  12.53%
2017 Return:  11.41%
2018 Return:  %

Risk: The Growth Portfolio is an aggressive portfolio strategy that is likely to decline substantially during market downturns. The information is an opinion and should not be interpreted as personal financial advice. Stated returns may not be accurate and should be verified independently by the reader.

I invest in ETFs which may from time to time include the ETFs listed here. However, I do not derive any financial benefit nor do I collect any revenue should you invest in the securities listed.

Income Portfolio

The Income Portfolio is a tactical asset allocation portfolio that is tilted to stable income for investors with large portfolios.

To reduce risk, simply increase the bond allocation and reduce the stock allocation proportionally.

There are several options to track this portfolio which may be preferable depending on your personal circumstances. See my favorite Canadian ETFs for different options in each asset class. You should attempt to optimize your ETFs by account type for tax efficiency.

These returns are based on re-balancing the first trading day of January each year. I don't include regular contributions while calculating my returns so your results will vary. Trading costs and taxes not included.

2014 Return:  9.63%
2015 Return:  3.98%
2016 Return:  7.92%
2017 Return:  9.49%
2018 YTD:  %

Risk: The Income Portfolio is an aggressive portfolio strategy that is likely to decline substantially during market downturns. The information is an opinion and should not be interpreted as personal financial advice. Stated returns may not be accurate and should be verified independently by the reader.

I invest in ETFs which may from time to time include the ETFs listed here. However, I do not derive any financial benefit nor do I collect any revenue should you invest in the securities listed.

Advisory Disclaimer

The content in this website is intended as an education and information resource only. The information is amateur in nature and should not be interpreted or acted upon as individualized professional financial advice. Discussions related to specific securities are an example of available options and author opinions only. This site does not derive incomes, sales benefits, or other material gain from the securities mentioned or from their managers.

Neither the authors, nor the site, are licensed or registered as professionals in any manner with the Alberta Securities Commission, its provincial peers, or industry associations.

Always do your due diligence before acting on the opinions shared. The information published may not be accurate and is not confirmed by applicable government agencies or licensed professionals. Investing is risky and can result in significant financial loss; readers should always consult with the appropriate professionals before making any investment or financial decisions.

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